WishlistSteam wishlist forecast
How many wishlists will you have at launch, and what might they turn into? Enter your numbers from Steamworks and get an estimate with a low–high range, with every step and source shown. Nothing is saved unless you ask for the plan.
The biggest lever is your store page
Forecasts assume your page converts visitors at a typical rate. If your capsule, short description or trailer underperform, you'll land at the low end. The free audit scores all of them in about a minute.
How the forecast works
Everything here is an estimate built from public benchmarks. We don't use private Steam data and we don't adjust for genre, because there's no robust public table of genre multipliers. Your own recent growth rate already reflects how your genre is doing.
- Growth to launch. Your last 30 days of wishlists, converted to a weekly rate and projected to your launch date. We show ±25% around it. That band is our assumption, not a published figure.
- Steam Next Fest. If there's a Next Fest that ends at least two weeks before your launch, we add the gain games like yours saw in the February 2026 survey (30th to 70th percentile).
- First-week sales. Launch wishlists × 0.1 to 0.17 (0.15 in the middle), from GameDiscoverCo's conversion research.
- Released games. Reviews × 30 to 60 (the Boxleiter method), from Gamalytic's review-ratio research.
Next Fest gains by wishlists going in (Feb 2026)
| Wishlists 1 day before | 30th pct | Median | 70th pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–999 | 179 | 322 | 485 |
| 1,000–9,999 | 549 | 1,006 | 1,722 |
| 10,000–99,999 | 2,584 | 5,215 | 9,633 |
| 100,000+ | 9,989 | 12,882 | 27,661 |
Sources
- How To Market A Game, Steam Next Fest benchmarks (Feb 2026 survey, 182 games)
- GameDiscoverCo, the state of Steam wishlist conversions (2024–25)
- GameDiscoverCo, 2024 wishlist conversion poll
- Gamalytic, Steam sales/review ratio deep dive
- Gamalytic, how to estimate Steam sales (Boxleiter method)
- Jake Birkett (Grey Alien Games), using Steam reviews to estimate sales
- How To Market A Game, how the Steam Personal Calendar affects your launch (Jun 2026)
Frequently asked questions
How accurate is a Steam wishlist forecast?
It's an estimate, usually right to within a factor of two. Conversion from wishlists to sales varies a lot by genre, price and launch timing, so we show a low–high range from published medians rather than one number.
How many wishlists do I get from Steam Next Fest?
In How To Market A Game's February 2026 survey of 182 games, the median gain was 322 wishlists for games entering with under 1,000, 1,006 for 1,000–9,999, 5,215 for 10,000–99,999 and 12,882 for 100,000+.
What percentage of wishlists convert to sales?
GameDiscoverCo found a median of about 0.15 first-week sales per launch wishlist for games with 25,000+ wishlists, about 0.10 for games priced over $10, and 0.17 in a 2024 developer poll.
How do I estimate sales for a released game?
Use the Boxleiter method: multiply total Steam reviews by roughly 30–60. Gamalytic's research puts the median near 30 for games rated 90%+ positive and nearer 60 for games around 70%.
Just want the conversion maths? Try the wishlist to sales calculator. Getting ready for a fest? Use the Next Fest checklist.